Highly detailed and accurate mesoscale forecasts. It seems this contrast in forecaster opinion might be linked to the Modernization, which promised Mostly cloudy with occasional showers continuing north of Seattle through early afternoon."īAD FORECAST: "Mostly cloudy with scattered showers." GOOD FORECAST: "Rain ending and becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. This set of forecasts contrasts sharply with another forecaster's examples. Who experienced a thunderstorm who would think it was a bad forecast, and to include theĪdditional material for those few was not worth the risk of confusion. So the forecast would be accurate short and sweet for them. In the good forecast case, the forecaster suggested most people would experience benign weather Possible small hail and gusty winds with the GOOD FORECAST: "Scattered showers and sunbreaks."īAD FORECAST: "Rain likely, turning to scattered showers, mainly near the foothills thisĪfternoon with isolated thunderstorms. For example, one forecaster felt that good forecasts were "very short forecasts." TheĪrgument was that detail is lost to most people and by keeping the forecast simple you minimize When the examples of good forecasts and bad forecasts were compared, there were a few a forecast that creates a picture in the user's mindĪlthough these are not dramatic or earth shattering they do show that the forecasters areĬoncerned about public perception and the action the forecast instills.a forecast that is read by the radio disk jockey and maintains its meaning.a forecast that compels the public to react.a forecast that conveys something that people can visualize.the bottom line is accuracy from our users perspective.a forecast that is honest and gives some measure of confidence.Specific remarks given by the forecasters Perception by the public or its societal impact. The remainder of the forecasters placed their measure of a "good" forecast in the accuracy of its Weight given to the accuracy of the forecast in measuring its goodness. Studies, I will not present any details of these responses.
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These are region specific and have been documented objectively in many rigorous objective Of the group of forecasters surveyed, only four focused their answer on measures of skill. Maximum temperature forecast that is within two degrees of what occurs might be considered a Might include some specific ranges of tolerance for various parameters. Would feel a good forecast was one that showed skill over a competing scheme. It therefore seems logical that some of the forecasters These are typically single point forecasts. (e.g., MOS or climatology) to demonstrate some improvement over the other forecast, or skill. Typically public forecasts, are verified against another forecast Please explain.Ī great deal of work has already been done to evaluate or verify forecasts, both within the NWSĪnd the academic community. What makes a good forecast? Please explain.Ģ. The survey was very simple and included threeġ. Participants were asked not to discuss the questions with each
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The group ofĪpproximately 20 includes both interns that are relatively inexperienced and senior forecasters All forecasters from the Seattle forecast office were surveyed. Viewed their public forecasts and what criteria they might use to measure the "goodness" of aįorecast. So, in the forecasters' opinion, whatĪ short survey was conducted as a means to gain insight into how a small group of forecasters Improved public forecasts and warnings has been met.
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On the other hand, it may be more debatable as to whether the promise of much Improvements in several forecast categories have been documented, e.g., lead time for tornado It has been an overwhelming technological success. The Modernization of the National Weather Service is nearing completion at a price tag of over Many of these forecast responsibilities are being transferred to the private sector through the Prepared for specialized groups including agriculture, aviation, and commerce. Forecasts for the public contrast sharply with forecasts The public is also one of the more difficult user groups to work with This note will concentrate on public forecasts since these are The core mission of the National Weather Service is the protection of life and property through Workshop was to bring the perspective of the forecaster into the discussions of public and private The intent of including this topic in the Multifaceted question with rather complicated answers. Initially seemed like a simple question with a simple answer, however, I quickly realized it is a Seattle, question was presented to me as my discussion topic by the Workshop organizers. "What is a Good Weather Forecast?" in the eyes of a forecaster "What is a Good Weather Forecast?"